Reading List: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The title of this book alludes to the fact that prior to the discovery of a black swan in Australia in 1697, the definition of a swan included its white color. This image speaks to the fact that we tend to extrapolate from what we see and know to create theories that shape and restrict our thinking. These theories then prevent us from seeing new possibilities as well as new threats.

Taleb’s background is in the quantitative financial world, but his ideas can be applied to everything from national defense to innovation. The concept of the Black Swan is that the sheer scale and complexity of today’s world means that “black swans” are more and more possible—and more dangerous.

This is a very hard book to follow—he cites freely from a lot of academic works and theories. But his message is powerful. And his answer to the dilemma of the “black swan” is not hard to understand—he tells us to not be afraid to say “I don’t know,” to avoid generalizations, and to be open to all possibilities.

To read more about this book, visit Taleb’s web site.